Draft Talk

          The calendar pages turn and PD dives deeper into the upcoming 2015 MFFL draft. PD must settle into the 3rd pick after trading up earlier this offseason. He's not use to having such a high pick. Only 5 of PD's 13 drafts have been from a top 4 pick. His decision to move up was based on pure excitement and not wanting to draft from the 8th pick for a 3rd consecutive year. Now that the dust has settled, and PD can focus on what the 3^rd pick means to him, he is beginning to unravel the themes, understandings, and ideology surrounding such a high draft pick.

            

            When reviewing PD’s previous drafts, a theme emerges from the years PD had a top 4 pick. 

2003 top 4 pick = championship                        

2004 top 4 pick = championship                        

2006 top 4 pick = championship                        

2011 top 4 pick = 2nd place                              

2012 top 4 pick = 3rd place    

            PD has never finished below 3^rd place when drafting in the top 4, and on three occasions he has reach the pinnacle. Why has PD had success when drafting early? Let’s look at some numbers.

            In the five years PD's had a top 4 pick, he selected a RB in the first round each time(Tomlinson, Tomlinson, Tiki Barber, Ray Rice, Arian Foster). All 5 of those picks had unbelievable seasons.

2003 Tomlinson: 2,370 Total Yards, 100 catches, 17 touchdowns

2004 Tomlinson: 1776 Total Yards, 53 catches, 18 touchdowns

2006 Tiki Barber: 2,127 Total Yards, 58 Catches, 5 Total Touchdowns

2011 Ray Rice: 2068 Total Yards, 76 catches, 15 touchdowns

2012 Arian Foster: 1641 Total Yards, 40 Catches, 17 touchdowns

             Clearly much of PD’s success has been linked to his ability to target a fantastic 1^st round RB, which is not an easy task. PD would say that 7 of the 20 RBs taken in the 1st round since 2012 have been serious busts, while other RBs have had down years but could not be considered complete busts. This means, on average, half of every RB taken in the 1st round will not live up to draft day potential. Its an unsettling thought for any manager selecting a 1st round RB. The RB Russian roulette hits any and all managers who play the game at some point. PD's great success when drafting in the top 4 is unquestionably related to their 1st round RB selections. If a manager hits on that early round RB then their season is secured in a manner of speaking. His scouting of 1st round RBs has worked for him in the past, and he must hope for similar results this season if he is to select a 1st round RB in 2015.